Rounding the Earth
Science & Tech • Education • Investing & Finance
Kirsch Capital Equities Fund: Buyer Beware, Part 2
Chaos Agents, Part 17
February 17, 2023

Click here to see other articles on Chaos Agents. Some more active conversation about topics such as this can be found at the RTE Locals channel.

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Images: Pile of money; Cosplayer at Comic Con in Liverpool

Yesterday, I wrote a brief critique of Steve Kirsch's hedge fund plans. Some of what was behind a paywall will be reiterated in this more thorough, fully public article that aims to be both comprehensive and at least a little entertaining (but probably not). This is one of those articles that I encourage you to share with those who may have sauntered up to the stage to make hundred dollar bills rain on Steve.

https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/kirsch-capital-equities-fund-buyer

Having had time to communicate just a little with Steve (who answered none of my concerns), talk with several others with experience with (either with Steve or) the hedge fund industry, and mull all of this over, I wanted to write a second article. A $100 million fund is serious business. It's even more serious at this moment for multiple reasons:

  • We seem to be heading into a massive market correction.

  • We seem to be heading into a massive reorganization of the global economy.

  • It's not clear whether the dollar will collapse sooner rather than later.

  • Hedge fund work is complex territory.

  • Pooling the names (and wealth) of wealthy dissidents has a very bad history.

  • Steve's plan strikes me as terrible during good times when all these other factors aren't in play.

  • Steve has relationships with numerous billionaires (worth hundreds of billions), but needs money from Substack readers?

  • Other shenanigans.

Also, there's something weird and creepy about forming long-term wealth pools with the money of thousands of people at this moment in time. I'm all about ordinary market participation, and working for greater rewards, and I've never been one to point at a lot of things and declare "Inappropriate!", but…

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I want to make this clear moving forward: Probably 50 or more RTE readers have written to me over the past two years asking if I would invest their money (which would likely mean starting a hedge fund). Steve asked me in 2021 if I would be interested in running his fund. That was the seventh time in my life I've been asked to run a hedge fund, and every time I've said "no". And that's not because I'm allergic to money. It's because I take money—a representation of people's labor—very seriously. I would only take on the task of managing money under the right circumstances, and in most cases I would rather be the educator who helps people better understand finance and economics for themselves. 

Even then, I am known for constantly giving advice such as, "Don't trade [unless you're an exceptional personality and mind for the job, and fully understand the market]." After I had a great run trading in 2017 and 2018, I started working on a book on how to trade cryptocurrency well. But I kept running into the fact that my real advice to almost any reader was, "Don't trade."

Several dozen paid RTE subscribers are members of my Bitcoin Education Squad. I believe that all of them will say that I'm consistent in my warnings about trading and investment. As others in the group wanted to talk about trading in a way that I felt was not generally responsible, I politely asked those people to create a different group. The main offender did so, and we are still friends.

The idea of people losing their money in fool's games simply makes me ill. That's half the reason I took the social risk of critiquing the circus around Ed Dowd's "Big Short" (even though I have no reason to believe he's a bad guy after grilling him, and I've talked to people I trust who say he's a good guy). I just felt that somebody around him likely set up a pump-and-dump in the options market. Identifying those scenarios is how I built a trading account up to 40,000% profit in about three-and-a-half years.

https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/the-big-short-a-warning-about-ed

Did anyone in the world claim to profit from buying Pharma puts, and provide receipts?

I don't care that I'll receive three to twenty emails telling me what an awful and terrible person I am for sharing my thoughts. And I'm happy to discuss the facts—I can be wrong. But this is a situation in which I see a bull in a china shop while 2,000 people are lined up to deposit their china (if the analogy doesn't fully make sense, that's because neither do the circumstances).

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Love him or hate him, sometimes a Trump meme is the right response to Reality TV politics

These Conditions are Terrible for Most Investment Funds

Was there ever a year prior to 2021 when only seven of the top 20 stock traders in Congress added to their positions in net? Does that tell you anything important about market conditions?

I could deposit a whole lot of additional words here, but if you're reading, you're probably aware that the world is in dramatic upheaval. If you need a whole lotta words, I've written more than a few (and a lot of these apply as well). But let's start in the present moment. What do you see in this chart?

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Does this chart scream, "Great time to lock up my capital in somebody else's investment vehicle with a big target on your back!?"

Or does it scream, "We may all be better off leaving the casino!?"

I get it: You're anxious. You're scared. You stay up nights wondering what the Nazis have in store. You would love to have some way to grow your capital while passing some of the profits to a worthy cause. You wonder if the world is spinning faster. You wonder why the difference between "The CIA helped murder JFK" and "the Earth is flat" suddenly seem a little blurrier.

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A word of advice: If you can't see straight when the bar is closing, don't go home with anyone, and don't take anyone home. Wake up tomorrow, drink some coffee, then sit on a nice park bench and think through whom you want to mingle genetic material with. Very. Carefully. One misstep, and you can't be certain whether you correctly count two nipples, or three.

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The dollar has been on a stable trajectory toward near-zero buying power for decades. You might ask how much value $100 million will lose sitting in a fund while potential profits (if there are any) are largely soaked up by a nonprofit that may or may not achieve any goals. It's worth repeating: I'm not just saying that Steve's hedge fund idea is a terrible one—I think that very few hedge fund investors will be particularly happy over the coming years. A scarce few will understand whether the prices of puts are expensive, much less time their put buys just right.

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Let's be clear: hedge fund work is the financial equivalent of surgery. Do you want to undergo surgery on the battlefield? Do you want your surgeon to be a Silicon Valley tech CEO who woke up at retirement age, quit the Rockefeller mafia, and came to Jesus several months into a war, said, "Jabs bad" loudly and often, bought a prop kitten, still wears the Central Bank Digital Currency company shirt, and then suddenly decided to raise money by bypassing medical school to become a surgeon? 

Does past performance correlate to future results?
Does past performance correlate to future results?

I'm not saying that Steve Kirsch is a bad actor, but I'm saying that maybe there are things that the community can trust him with, and other things that seem less than wise to trust him with. And also that he may not actually know the difference, or even be equipped to know the difference.

Sometimes, it's best to avoid mistakes without experiencing them.


What Do Other Market Professionals Think?

Understand that I have a fairly deep pool of friends and acquaintances to talk with who have either worked at the most successful hedge funds (like D.E. Shaw or Susquehanna where I traded and later head hunted young recruits, Renaissance where I know the top quant and others, or Janestreet where numerous of my former students have gone), or run their own hedge funds (Hi Mike, Gilda, George, Michelle, and sorry anyone reading whose name I skipped), prop trading groups (Hi Bill and John), or personal funds (my preferred route). I thought I might talk to a few of them, but I've talked to just one. I quickly realized that I was not going to hear anything more exuberant than, "Well, this seems not well thought out," with respect to Steve's plans.

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I noticed the following comment on Steve's hedge fund announcement. Sid is the inventor of the ETF, and a highly experienced financial mathematician. While we don't agree on all the specifics of what would be a good trade or investment right now (that's a very tough conversation in this environment, and it would be hard to get full agreement in a room full of smart people), it is evidence that top minds with domain expertise find plenty that is unpalatable about Steve's plans.

-P92Jbta7P5RixuAiSCNMpYsYVTvjplPjou-gpMANrLDIvcvb281l6sy4O9Y9rW6QF7kNr2ahPaeBBpWzHXGMui2FiQK2-znVzWS5b6vCOTbBzMmTsB2gFjONuORhqVgczCiOYNODxy8lJCX31XklV4

If you're a market professional—particularly one with hedge fund experience, I'd be curious to hear your take. Are you throwing your own money in? Aside from any of the other information in this article, where would you rank Steve's plan among investments at your disposal?


The Questionable Kirsch

The world's richest man is one of the two of the largest donors to Steve Kirsch's COVID-19 Early Treatment Fund. The largest outside donor is billionaire Jeffrey Skoll, who sets aside a large portion of his wealth in a foundation to fund social entrepreneurship. Another is a multi-billionaire pandemic profiteer who co-funded the University of Minnesota trials with Steve that sank hydroxychloroquine. There are other highly wealthy donors as well. As vocal as Steve has been about vaccines, it amazes me that he doesn't unravel all the bullshit behind those trials. Early Treatment Fund indeed.

Has Steve picked up the phone to ask these gentlemen how much they'd like to contribute to his fund of funds? Elon Musk probably sweats a million dollars a day. There are probably hundred dollar bills in his belly button lint. 

Has Steve called up the Zelenko vitamins billionaire? I hear he's sold north of $100 million in vitamins at over 1000% markup. Let me know if I have that number wrong—it might be higher now. 

Has Steve reached out to the Bitcoin billionaires who funded the Global COVID Summit to offer them into the investment pool? 

If he didn't bother, isn't that interesting? If they all said, "No, thanks," is that a signal?

There is so much that smells…off in this kitchen that I don't think it suffices to check the milk. Are you picking up what I'm laying down here?

While my critique of Kirsch's fund of funds wasn't exactly made with kid gloves on, it was an honest and straight-forward critique. Steve's response was not to answer any of my numerous concerns, but to simply announce that I'd written a "hit piece" on him. I have seen hit pieces written on Steve, but let's be clear: only a fool would dismiss many valid concerns over this amount of money. I am sticking to the facts, and making it clear what is my judgment and opinion, and Steve doesn't address any of that. It's not just that he plays the victim card, but he only plays the victim card.

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This is the same man who daily lambasts public health officials for not addressing real concerns and dangers. Did he generate all this public popularity, with over a million people reading his substack, just to be in the same position of not having to answer questions about plans with enormous risk?

Steve's primary pushback might be framed as, "I'm doing this because there is no better idea." This is a classic tu quoque fallacy.

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Over the past 21 months, I've spent hours talking finance with Steve, and in almost every conversation I felt as though I were talking with somebody with little enough knowledge and experience to be maximally overconfident. Even worse, if my thoughts didn't align with his desire to have a dazzling, unassailable plan, it felt like he just wanted to stop listening and get off the phone—like he didn't have time to be considerate in learning what he would need to learn to make any plan a good one. I'm sure this can be framed as an "attack", but it's a position that I reviewed personally many times as Steve's odd behaviors and decisions mounted.

During the first 11 months I knew Steve, he never even inquired how I took my trading account 400x, and when I did briefly consult for him in April of last year, his advisor seemed anxious through the conversation to just end it. I saw no indication that either of them were ready to learn about serious trading discipline and strategy. This was shortly after Steve wrote bragging about being up 5.63% during March of last year. That week I warned him about Crypto Winter and the inevitable rug pull of the yield farming tent (the one that gave FTX rug burn), and Steve still fell into that trap to lose millions.

Has Steve published his personal trading/investing returns to date?

What does it tell us that he has people lined up to invest without that kind of detail?

I also put Steve in contact with a now-retired computer scientist who successfully built an algorithmic-based A.I. hedge fund. I could have put him in touch with quality traders and quants in any financial discipline, though I felt more and more reticent about sharing my rolodex.

Apparently since my brief consultation for the Kirsch Capital team, they simply defaulted to "fund of funds" instead. And while he complains that nobody is offering better ideas, he stopped seeking my advice, which I interpret as not having the attention span for the level of detail necessary to succeed in the hedge fund world.

Also, I keep scratching my head wondering why a tech CEO who has amassed hundreds of millions by building companies doesn't prefer to focus on market building rather than market playing. If he can't find a field worth building in, doesn't that tell him something stark about the broader market?

Let's see…fields worth investing in…

  • Education. I hear the home schooling market is booming. Also, I know some people who know some people…

  • Why not simply crowd-fund a medical trial or two? Why is locking up $100 million a necessary step in the process?

  • Virtopsy services, which was one of my unanswered complaints about relying on one embalmer to witness about 100 others saying the clots are real. Why not let families pay a fee to find out, film it, and compile the data as a for profit venture that partially funds VSRF?

  • A new hospital. I've heard a rumor (that I believe given other information consistent with the claim) that AFLDs is missing $30 million in funds. Wasn't that money supposed to go toward building a new hospital network? Or…maybe just one place where the vaccine-injured wouldn't be subjected to gas lighting?

  • How about my idea for a distributed medical data system?

  • How about a new scientific publishing system on a crypto-rail?

  • How about the manufacturing of antibiotics since more than 95% of ours are made in China, and it smells like the feces hit the fan already?

  • How about a textbook publishing company that writes books that don't brainwash people into false histories and false science? I guess that's just one of the many versions of "education" that I outlined.

  • How about an AirBnB competitor with encrypted personal keys so that one company isn't dominating a centralized information pool that they can exploit or that can be breached? Would *anyone* not switch over?

  • An agriculture bank (throw in educational services) that helps farmers control their output, which usually gets sucked into the corporate system that pressures them to plant unhealthy crops for unhealthy foods, and to vaccinate (which generally entails post-vaccination antibiotics) animals.

  • A logistics company that helps truckers maintain their autonomy (most of the logistics firms have undergone mass consolidation, leaving the community politically helpless—which may be why the People's Convoy was so easily sabotaged).

  • Even intentional community real estate investment might be a quality niche market for a few years as wiser people in this ecosystem look for functional places to live.

This isn't even hard. Sometimes for meditation, I sit with a notebook and just imagine what people need, Pareto improvements to systems, or which companies are the most predatory. And if the goal is to gain more funds than Steve generates with his Substack, a three-year time horizon can involve selling stock out gradually to new investors, a bit at a time. 

And Steve had my advice for free (though he constantly asked the wrong questions, and ignored constructive paths).

https://twitter.com/SmallEmbersArt/status/1626415857227161602?s=20

And if there are no positive financial feedback loops that empower people, then taking $100 million of investment capital and pouring that into the current power base seems like a truly terrible idea from the outset!

Steve loves to bet, and prods those he challenges as if they're cowards. So…

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I'll wager that Bitcoin out-returns Steve's fund of funds in 2023, too.

Amazingly, despite his history of ignoring my (usually free) advice within my domain experience, Steve blames me for his lack of due diligence.

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But did I save him a headache? I suspect I saved the headaches of some potential investors. I've been thanked a few times over the past 24 hours. But after all of Steve's questionable behavior, I have to wonder aloud whether Steve's goal is to make millions for the VSRF, or to tie up the capital of thousands of people while the global economy that fuels the markets is strangled.

Suppose that I'm wrong, and that Steve has done far more due diligence than I've imagined or observed. Then why hasn't he told his audience, "I know that these well-earning hedge funds will take money, and specifically also the money of anti-vax dissidents, because I've talked to X, Y, and Z on the phone?" Can he at least tell us that he won't be taking fees to place capital, because that's how (I've heard, ahem) some of these funds of funds operate.

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Has he posted hedge fund earnings distributions, or displayed analysis on how many funds actually beat the market consistently?

Has he shared the results of other funds of funds (which have historically failed to beat the market, meaning that buying a simple ETF would have outperformed with lower fees)?

Steve's announcement makes a bold claim.

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It's just so simple that he never bothered to build his own hedge fund before. Or wait, is he saying that he is currently operating a fund, stating the past performances of the funds they chose, but not sharing any information on how those funds have performed since he invested in them?!

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I'm going to share a little secret with you. This is hard won experience from Wall Street. Are you ready for it? Fact: There are a small handful of hedge funds that monopolize top talent, and achieve outsized gains over the years. You might be able to count them on one hand. And neither you, nor I, nor Steve Kirsch can invest in them.

placeholder

Almost all the other firms that even beat the broad market by even a notch over any long term are performing criminal acts, like sharing returns with medical trial reviewers who tip them with unpublished results. Will Steve know how to distinguish between them? Will he care to try? So far, I don't see basic due diligence, much less an ethical foundation for the process.

But hey, we can just leap all the way to "win-win" ahead of time, and a vaguely outlined mission of "truth".


You Do Not Need Steve Kirsch to Lead You

Save me the weird "Unity" nonsense where I'm supposed to remain silent about crazy behavior, people in the medical freedom movement in trucks full of guns at trucker rallies, apparent fraudulent grifting, or all the other sort of information that rational people might want to apply to important decisions. But if you want "unity" at the cost of information and agency, I'm fairly sure the status quo is moving in that direction, already. I bid you good luck following the other herd outside the herd.

Investing with Steve means putting your money into a pool pre-labeled "anti-vax dissident". And while I don't mind personal smears so much (I lean toward, "What Do You Care What Other People Think?"), it seems unwise to run through the halls of the banking system with a target on your back. You could lose more than your money.

And I do have an alternative (aside from the potential business plans, or just crowd-funding some operations, so lots of alternatives). Here goes…

You need to step up and be your own leader. You are more capable than you know. We have all been targeted with methods for suppressing that confidence, and from multiple directions. Strangely, Steve never figured that out while working with the Rockefeller Foundation until after the COVID-19 quasi-vaccines were already on their unstoppable march.

You be the leader that you need. Step up. You have your own unique set of strengths and skills. Start identifying the ways to employ them outside of the framework of the corrupted games. It doesn't matter if you can't see good bets to make right now. Hold your chip stack tight, and don't play a hand until you can identify the edge yourself. And don't trust anyone telling you how well they can play that hand for you—most especially if they've never played that game (that makes sense, right?).

Instead of following the herd outside of the herd, lead your family and your community. Your family is counting on you. Your community is counting on you. The trappings of liberty afforded by a Constitutional Republic are dependent on you. Every human being with a soul who doesn't want the Globalist Nazi Party to accrue more power is counting on you. Change is coming. You can contribute to steering that ship, or you can lend your will to proxy agents whom you've never been in a room with. Bet on yourself.

 

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Evidence of the HUB and the Zero Efficacy Hypothesis for COVID-19 Vaccines
Shattering the Efficacy Illusion, Part 4

"The difficult lies to detect are lies our minds wish they were true." -Aniekee Tochukwu Ezekiel

Articles from the Vaccine Wars can be found here. See Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 if you're just getting started. This may be necessary to handle all the acronyms, and if you're truly interested in unraveling the vaccine effectiveness illusion, this is the article you're going to want to read carefully and understand.

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All the green lines are straight. The illusion is in the periphery.


For the sake of this article, I would like readers to keep multiple points in mind:

  • HUB = WUB = EUB (health is wealth is education, as variables, in aggregate)

  • It may very well be that HUB accounts for all of VE in U.S. county level data, but may be a small or moderately-size part of the illusion in other nations.

  • If VE is effectively zero in any one nation, then there is likely no complete mechanism for effects of these biological products at all, so any VE in any data set is an illusion. I focus my primary data argument on the U.S. county data via the CDC.

While I led this article series with a graph that showed that the slightly negative correlation between vaccine uptake and COVID-19 deaths basically tracked (was slightly higher than, on average) median household income by U.S. county, that is not alone enough to declare that the HUB validates the ZEH. It would be irresponsible to stop there and scream from the hills, "These quasi-vaccine genetic products don't stop COVID!" So, I've gathered further evidence. A lot of it. Understand that the graphs in this article are a fraction of those that I have available, and may include in a more complete book on the topic. Walk with me…

I'm going to lead with the punchline again. All correlation between vaccine uptake and COVID-19 mortality rates by county appears to be completely explained by income and education status. The correlations are almost perfect mirror images of one another!

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This chart screams HUB and ZEH, but let's look for other evidence..

Consider these two charts I made last year of all cause mortality (per million residents) for all U.S. counties where the x-axis represents the percentile score for median household income (a good proxy for wealth).

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Clearly, poorer counties suffer substantially higher mortality rates (almost 68% higher from the lowest income to the highest earning counties). Clearly, these are not equivalent cohorts, and any analysis that clumsily mashes them together will necessarily suffer from the ecological fallacy in a way that drives up VE. But this is not my point for the moment.

Now, look at the same charts for 2020 and 2021. The slopes of the trendlines tilt a little more, meaning that the mortality increase among poorer counties was significantly higher throughout the pandemic—both before and after the vaccines were rolled out.

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The slope got sharper during COVID, so apparently COVID kills the poor faster. COVID mortality was a bit higher in 2021 than in 2020, and the slope tilted just a bit more negative. If the vaccines were effective, we should see a sharper change—the tilt toward the wealthier counties should be more extreme. In fact, if we combine the 2021 and 2022 slopes through May 22, 2022, we get -646.33, which is a softer slope than in 2020 before the vaccines rolled out, which is the exact opposite of what we would see if the vaccines were effective at reducing death.

Of course, this is all cause mortality, which means that other variables affect the slope. These include changes in rates of obesity and diabetes that make COVID-19 a more severe disease, murder and suicide rates, and drug overdoses. The problem is that these all affect poor counties more severely, which would have the effect of making the slope sharper, so a softer slope post-vaccine than before looks extremely bad for the hypothesis that the vaccines are effective.

Now, I do have the state-level data ready through all of 2022, and while the advantage in excess deaths began the year tilting toward the wealthier, more vaccinated states, that trend began to reverse in 2022. The crowd that argues "waning efficacy" should only see a partial flattening of the trend, but not a reversal.

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Over at I Numero, T Coddington has been performing a parallel self-education similar to my own. He graphed serious indicators of poor health versus booster uptake showing much great dose administration in areas where the people are healthier.

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Hat tip: T Coddington

There is no possible way that these graphs can be confused: healthier Americans were substantially more likely to get vaccinated. And that only makes sense given the strict mandates put in place for groups that include large numbers of the healthiest Americans: many colleges applied strict mandates, resulting in vaccination rates up to nearly 100%, thumbs were on the scales to push corporate workers into vaccination, and 

More specifically, he firms up my claim that "wealth is health"!

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I think that T Coddington has had a similar journey to my own over the past year, recognizing key health/wealth correlates, then discovering the literature (that authorities damn well surely know about) on the HUB.

While the graphs we just saw were based on U.S. county-level aggregates, there is research (in addition to the VSD's publication) that shows the HUB on a more individual level. And that's without mandates that pushed young people (military, college students, corporate workers) into vaccination.

Here is another scatter plot with U.S. county data as of mid-August 2022 (h/t Operation Uplift), this time with both axes rank-ordered (each number is ranked from 1 to the total number of counties, in strictly increasing order). The lack of clustering is another way to see how little relationship exists between vaccination rates and COVID-19 spread.

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Before we talk about breakthrough cases, let's talk about R again for a moment. The following plots were provided by computer scientist Timothy Snyder, a volunteer with Operation Uplift. The scatter plots compare vaccination rates with viral spread across U.S. counties. Do you see a trend line? Overall? Or for any one color (month)? I sure don't.

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What we see in these charts is that there is no significant correlation between vaccination rates and spread---at least by some definition, which we'll put a pin in and come back to later. But this is at least interesting on its own because it presents a puzzle where "efficacy" (defined only as relative risk reduction) of the vaccines occurs entirely without any absolute risk reduction of the system. If there is relative risk reduction without absolute risk reduction, that means that vaccinating a cohort of individuals somehow prevents infections that take place in that cohort while pushing infections into the remaining unvaccinated cohort. That would be quite bizarre, but would also imply that the effects of the vaccine would not be a public health concern, on the whole. Either that, or somehow, in a way that would seem quite magical, only the people who were never going to get sick got vaccinated (basically), which is evidence of the HUB sculpting the relative risk reduction.

Epidemiology and Biostatistics Professor Emeritus Eyal Shahar agrees that HUB has been at play, artificially elevating VE with what he calls "pseudo-protection".

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Shahar on the UK data

Not everyone agrees that HUB is entirely to blame for potentially false appearances of substantial VE. In a paper uploaded to researchgate last year (Neil et al, 2022; preprint), a deep team of investigators analyzed COVID-19 mortality data by vaccine status as presented by the UK's Office of National Statistics (ONS). They concluded that healthy vaccinee bias explained less of the VE than delays in reporting of vaccination status combined with systemic miscategorization of deaths.

The risk/benefit of Covid vaccines is arguably most accurately measured by comparing the all-cause mortality rate of vaccinated against unvaccinated, since it not only avoids most confounders relating to case definition but also fulfils the WHO/CDC definition of "vaccine effectiveness" for mortality. We examine two of the most recent UK ONS vaccine mortality surveillance reports, which provide the necessary information to monitor this crucial comparison over time. At first glance the ONS data suggest that, in each of the older age groups, all-cause mortality is lower in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. This conclusion is cast into doubt upon closer inspection of the data due to a range of fundamental inconsistencies and anomalies in the data. Whatever the explanations for these are, it is clear that the data is both unreliable and misleading. It has been suggested that the anomalies are the result of healthy vaccinee selection bias and population differences. However, we show why the most likely explanations for the observed anomalies are a combination of systemic miscategorisation of deaths between the different categories of unvaccinated and vaccinated; delayed or non-reporting of vaccinations; systemic underestimation of the proportion of unvaccinated; and/or incorrect population selection for Covid deaths. We also find no evidence that socio-demographic or behavioural differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated can explain these anomalies.

Could the answer be a combination of miscategorization and HUB? Since I am more familiar with the U.S. data, I will focus there. After all, if the experimental quasi-vaccines aren't effective in one nation, it stands to reason that they aren't effective in any nations. And while we should expect VE computations [corrected for bias where necessary] to be highly similar between nations, there is no reason to expect that HUB should be the same from one nation to the next. The HUB is highly sensitive to policy decisions made qua nation. For instance, mandates focused on members of the military and universities should be expected to introduce the HUB among young adult demographics.

It's not just in the U.S. where HUB is clearly and substantially observed. Studies around the world tend to point toward consistently unidirectional HUB bias.  A study out of China (Miao et al, 2022) examined the relationship between COVID-19 vaccine uptake and 12 different healthy lifestyle habits. In all 12 cases, there was positive correlation in all 12 cases. Since the vast majority of China (91.8% now; 89.4% in the study) is vaccinated, this pools the least healthy people into the unvaccinated category.

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In a recently published study (Kwan et al, 2023), researchers found baseline rates of diabetes to be 41% lower among the vaccinated. Though this measurement did not quite achieve statistical significance, it seems clinically meaningful—particularly in light of all of the other evidence that the vaccinated are a substantially healthier cohort.

We also have the vaccine trial data itself (Benn et al, 2022; still preprint?) to demonstrate that the HUB works to massage the illusion of effectiveness into retrospective vaccine analyses. There was no overall mortality benefit whatsoever for the mRNA vaccines during their trials.


Consistency Across Observations

While there is no "proof" in science or statistics, we love to examine problems from different vectors. We gravitate toward hypotheses that are consistent with all observations.

Recall now that after a basic correction over risk-adjusted person days, the quickly scrubbed data from the military contractor SAIC showed negative efficacy shortly after vaccination, which asymptotically moved toward zero efficacy thereafter.

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In Japan, researchers (Aug 2022 Med Check, Vol. 8, No. 24r) discovered two cases of data manipulation by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare. Emphasis mine:

One is the case of misregistration of vaccine recipients. When comparing the proportion of newly reported COVID-19 patients by vaccination status, patients who were surely vaccinated but with unknown date of vaccination were treated as “unvaccinated” by MHLW. Hence, the proportion was extremely low in the vaccinated and extremely high in the unvaccinated. As a result, the data gave the impression that the vaccine worked very well. 

The data from April 11 onwards have been corrected as pointed out by a researcher. As a result, the proportion of new infections per 100,000 people no longer differs across most age groups. Considering the “healthy vaccinee effect”, the protective effect of vaccine is even lower.

Interested readers can also read later in the article about increases in myocarditis rates among young, healthy Japanese citizens, post-transfection. But this article is primarily focused on the benefit side of the risk-benefit analysis—specifically the fact that there doesn't appear to be any.

Also, let us not forget studies showing similar viral loads between the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations (Riemersma et al, 2021). So, all those magical antibodies aren't doing their jobs, but this is supposed to slow mortality?

It didn't.

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Even worse, in a reply to the concerns of Statistics and data experts Norman Fenton, Martin Neil (seen on RTE here), Clare Craig, and Scott McLachlan, the UK's Office of National Statistics (ONS) admitted that their publicly presented data summaries suffer from vaccine status errors and demographic skews that likely embeds some amount of HUB into the results (at least for some demographic bands).

…For an individual to be included in the PHDA, they must have responded to the 2011 census and be presently registered with a GP. Approximately 79% of the population fall into this category. Those missing from the PHDA dataset are therefore not missing at random, and they are more likely to fall under one or more of the following categories:

  • Younger in age

  • Born outside of the UK

  • Unvaccinated (as it is more difficult to obtain a COVID-19 vaccination without being registered with a GP)

We consider that it is therefore likely that the sample used in the Deaths by Vaccination Status publication is not representative of the general population. Those who are missing are, we think, more likely to be younger and unvaccinated. This is also acknowledged by ONS in its Deaths by Vaccination Status publications.

ONS is working to address some of the sampling issues present in the first six iterations of the publication…

And while the ONS data does not seem to suffer from as severe a degree of HUB skew as the U.S. county data, one of the frightening things that I discovered when I examined the publicly available ONS data set in May 2022 was that the ONS admitted at the time (as a note in their own spreadsheet) to excluding over 2,000 COVID-19 deaths from their data set—all of whom died shortly after vaccination.

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Maybe some of those deaths were due to vaccination, and maybe they weren't, but it does stack the deck not to include the COVID-19 illness rates among the most frail, which is itself a form of HUB.

Globally, the wealthiest nations were generally the most highly vaccinated, though vaccine uptake in the second quartile nations was highly similar to that of the highest quartile nations.

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So, did those nations see similar changes in their rates of COVID-19 mortality?

No. In fact, the results look absolutely nothing alike.

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If the vaccines were effective, why do we see such dramatic divergence between high income and upper middle income nations more than two years into the experimental mass vaccination program? Is it because the mRNA vaccines more often used among the wealthier nations simply don't work at all? It would seem that way, but there may be other variables at play in terms of what might actually be causing illness around the globe.


A Mechanistic Reason Why None of This Should Surprise Us

The idea that vaccination to generate antibodies in the blood stream has an effect on respiratory viruses has long been a controversial one. And as we've seen, it appears that the influenza vaccines never worked, which bolsters the argument that such antibodies fail to work at the right location—the mucosal membrane. This has been pointed out by Dr. Richard Urso, Dr. Ryan Cole, and others. Dr. Joseph Lee puts it thusly,

Never mind, I'll let you off the hook. No bet. The COVID antibody was barely present in 2020. The COVID antibody doesn't seem to have a path through the lung barrier into the lung alveolar cell area. The lung barrier can stop water molecules that are 18 Daltons in size and the COVID antibody is a gargantuan 145,000 Daltons in size. The lung barrier can stop WATER molecules. This barrier MUST be passed by the COVID antibody in order to reach the lung alveolar cells. But, this barrier WILL stop the COVID antibody.

We are not yet done. More to come…

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The Right and Wrong Definitions of Technology
The Monetary Wars, Part II

This article was originally published on March 23, 2021. A couple of minor changes have been made to enhance the article. Find more articles in The Monetary Wars series here.

As I republish around an article a week, this one stands out as important with respect ot the substack of the education enterprises that I have once again started to pursue.


Before we jump into the topic of technology, let us consider the level importance of the topic. You may already understand the immense power of technology on many levels, but we cannot overstate the importance of a good definition. A bad definition is like tunnel vision or blurry eyesight. It can leave us half-blind to the ways in which technology shapes the world.

What is technology?

Go to Wikipedia for the answer and you get a terrible definition---something like the one you were probably taught during your schooling indoctrination years:

Technology is the sum of techniques, skill, methods, and processes used in the production of goods or services or in the accomplishment of objectives, such as scientific investigation. Technology can be the knowledge of...embedded in machines…

To be sure, the Wikipedia answer explores a broad subset of the terrain of technology, pushing visions of academic research and silicon chips. But this terrain falls short. The definition is incomplete. The fundamental quality of technology is entirely missing---perhaps intentionally so?

In order to understand technology, let us dive into a piece of economic history. Don't worry---we dodge the mathy stuff as it doesn't pertain much to our story (but study that if you're interested!). During the mid-twentieth century, one of the chief pursuits of economists was to describe an aggregate growth model, considered by some necessary for the completeness of neoclassical economic theory. In 1956, economists Robert Solow (MIT) and Travor Swan (Australian National University) simultaneously published what has become known as the Solow-Swan growth model. For this achievement and others, Solow received the 1987 Nobel Prize in Economics, though Swan was never acknowledged by the committee. Their model will be the source of our definition of technology.

Let us keep the Solow-Swan model (SSM) as simple as possible. We can certainly build an intuitive understanding of the model without learning how to read differential equations. Simply put, the SSM describes economic output is the result several inputs:

  • Capital: the stuff used in production that can be bought with money.

  • Labor: bodies that do stuff with capital that results in output products/services.

  • Technology: Wizard magic? We'll get to that.

Here are the first basic observations we make:

  1. Capital and labor scale the output linearly. If we double the number of workers and the amount of capital they have to work with, we then double the output of the economy. If we triple those inputs, we triple the output.

  2. We live in a world of exponential rates of wealth and production growth. Who would invest their resources (capital) in production if the output wasn't expected to be larger than the input?! Economic feedback loops result in the multiplication of capital repeatedly, resulting in an exponential output function. (linear in read, exponential in green)

So, given that labor and capital only result in linear scaling of outputs, and technology is the only other system input, that means that technology is the sole source of exponential growth! In fact, this gives us the best definition of technology---one based implicitly on results, and casts aside our biases of what qualifies as "academic" or "process of silicon machines".

Technology is anything that grows resources.

If you make a change to a process so that your outputs are greater than your inputs (or previous outputs), you have applied technology.

So simple. So perfect. This will be a foundation on which we rebuild a lot of the terrible ideas that have led us into the era of The Monetary Wars.

Now, by defining technology implicitly (as opposed to relying on some narrower explicit definition), we might seek to at least describe some areas of technology in order to bring focus to the landscape. Ultimately any of the following might or might not be technology---we only know by evaluating the results of any action!

  • Machines (including computers)

  • Culture! We might even categorize religion here. (I consider culture the most underrated technology.)

  • Education/Meditation

  • Law

  • Medicine

  • Weapons?

  • Agriculture

  • Business organization

  • Human relations (think community building or zoom out to international relations)

  • Literature

  • Transportation

  • Methods of engineering not listed

We'll stop here---not because we cannot think of other good sources of technology, but because those sources are truly limitless. Anything practical or productive you have ever thought---any creative energy---is a source of technology. Technology is all those things that are worth investing ourselves (time, energy, capital...all of it) in doing because by definition they make us better off.

Thank you for reading. We hope you think hard on this topic and we plan to come back to this definition in future articles for the purpose of digging deep into challenging topics. As a teaser, we plan to add another twist: technology is in the eye of the beholder. Just as aggregating utility is difficult, the game theory of technology can get interesting when we realize that some actions and products may be technology for some, but not for others. Check back again in the future.

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Woody Harrelson Said the Quiet Part Out Loud
The Pharmafia, Part 2

For more on The Pharmafia, check out the RTE articles here. Also, join our Locals community where active discussions often take place about challenging events in real time.


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Woody Harrelson Talks About A Movie Script That No One Would Believe...

I can hear the chants if I close my eyes.

"Go, Woody, Go! Go, Woody, Go!"

I don't usually publish the same sensational news that you can read at any of several dozen Substacks, social media accounts (thousands, perhaps), and blogs of highly variable quality and curation, so I owe you a few words of explanation. This is important. We need to know exactly what just happened.

While Woody Harrelson did not say "Pharmafia", he said "drug cartels", by which we know that he means Big Pharma. We're on the same page. And…he was…allowed to say it.

Allowed…why, exactly?

You've just been given an ounce of social approbation. Is this the thin gruel that keeps you alive?

Most people in the Medical Freedom Movement—the millions who woke up due to harsh mandates and other authoritarian government actions—are happy to simply sit behind their screens and pump their fists. These are the same throngs following Chaos Agents through social media and Substack. These are mostly the intuitives who are not well enough educated to track down all the important information on their own, but know that the mainstream media and governments were lying to them. They are at risk of falling into the trap of the mass formation of the movement—and at risk of finding themselves steered by a false prophet.

Why would powerful corporate interests want to keep you alive as you study their crimes and threaten to do something about them?

I have multiple hypotheses that are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I'm not sure the list is exhaustive in a realistic sense. I may add suggestions from the peanut gallery this time.

  • Part of the corporate power base (possibly military, too) was always against Plandemonium, but could not stop it. Instead, they waited to build momentum on the other side.

  • Perhaps like FTX/Alameida, the Pharmafia's plan was one of several attempts at global domination (the "vax tax") that failed, and this is a necessary step toward recall.

  • This is part of an elaborate trap, much like Mao's Hundred Flowers campaign that saw his opponents out themselves—compiled into an easy list, complete with street addresses so that his communist troops could rip them from their homes one-by-one and imprison, enslave, or murder those who could not be otherwise turned.

Woody Harrelson may be the perfect man to deliver the message such that we cannot easily discern the meaning. He is not a man from a powerful family. He is the son of a heinous hitman who worked his own way up from poverty and obscurity in a career with notable downturns. You won't find him in Jeffrey Epstein's little black book. He is a man that I quite frankly want to root for, given what I know about him.

And yet the fact remains: he was allowed to say what he said.

Unless there is a James O'Keefe moment yet to come where Woody Harrelson finds himself on the outside?

Unfortunately, I think we'll have to wait and find out.

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